By Joel Edmondson, VMA CEO
Australia’s current terror threat level is PROBABLE – a 50% or greater chance that a terror attack or attack planning will take place on Australian soil in the next 12 months. Regardless, terror incidents are almost always experienced as coming ‘out of nowhere’, given the way they disrupt the norms and patterns that govern our daily lives.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former trader turned philosopher and statistician, is best known for his work on probability and risk, particularly as it applies to unforeseen, high-impact events that defy conventional expectations. His book, The Black Swan, explores the nature of these rare and disruptive events, urging leaders across industries to prepare for the unthinkable. Taleb argues that Black Swan events—those that are rare, have extreme consequences, and seem predictable only in hindsight—are not only inevitable but also capable of altering entire industries.
For venue managers, Taleb’s insights offer a unique perspective on risk management. In venue environments where public safety is paramount, Black Swan events like terrorism, extreme weather, or large-scale health crises are unpredictable yet potentially devastating. By studying Taleb’s principles, venue managers can cultivate resilience, preparing to handle the unexpected with readiness and composure.
Understanding Black Swan Events in Venue Management
In Taleb’s terms, Black Swan events are unexpected, have severe consequences, and challenge our ability to predict them. A high-profile example of such an event occurred during the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, where explosions outside the Stade de France—where an international soccer match was underway—disrupted the event and forced a rapid response. The event not only impacted the immediate operations but reshaped long-term security protocols, raising awareness of the potential for extreme, unforeseen disruptions.
For venue managers, such Black Swan events reveal the importance of moving beyond conventional risk assumptions. Taleb’s work encourages managers to acknowledge the unpredictable, to look beyond assumptions that “it won’t happen here,” and to instead build operational resilience that can withstand unexpected disruptions with minimal impact.
Building Robustness and Resilience in Venue Operations
Taleb’s emphasis on robustness—the ability to withstand shocks without serious harm—is especially relevant for venues. Since the Stade de France attack, stadiums and convention centers worldwide have heightened their security measures, implementing perimeter checks, enhanced screening processes, and emergency response drills. Robustness involves establishing protocols and systems that can handle volatility, even in extreme cases, helping venues respond effectively when a Black Swan event occurs.
For instance, robust systems might include backup communication networks, partnerships with local law enforcement, and comprehensive crowd management strategies. Taleb’s call for robustness encourages venues to establish a foundation of preparedness that minimizes potential damage in the face of high-impact events, ensuring that safety and operations are prioritized even in crisis situations.
Embracing Antifragility for Competitive Advantage
In The Black Swan, Taleb also discusses “antifragility”—the idea that some systems not only withstand shocks but actually grow stronger from them. For venue managers, adopting an antifragile mindset means actively learning from disruptions and using them to drive innovation and resilience. In response to past terrorist incidents, for example, many stadiums have implemented real-time crowd monitoring, emergency alerts, and AI-driven security systems, which not only protect guests but also enable staff to respond with greater agility.
Venues that embrace antifragility adapt to disruptions and develop the tools and flexibility needed to excel under pressure. By leveraging Black Swan events as opportunities to improve, these venues gain a competitive advantage, becoming safer and more reliable spaces capable of delivering exceptional experiences—even when challenged by the unexpected.
Fostering a Culture of Preparedness and Innovation
Taleb argues that flexibility and adaptability are essential for handling Black Swan events. For venue managers, this means fostering a culture where staff are not only trained in emergency response but also equipped to act decisively in the face of unpredictable threats. Following the Manchester Arena bombing in 2017, for instance, many venues reevaluated their protocols, working closely with local authorities to ensure rapid communication, coordinated evacuations, and staff readiness.
By building a culture that values continuous improvement and agility, venues can respond with speed and effectiveness to a variety of potential threats. Taleb’s philosophy emphasizes the value of this adaptive mindset, urging venues to view every emergency as a learning opportunity that can enhance overall preparedness.
Staying Aware of Cognitive Biases
Taleb’s work also highlights the dangers of cognitive biases, such as the “narrative fallacy,” which leads us to create overly simplistic stories about complex events after they happen. Venue managers must guard against this bias by avoiding assumptions that events like the Stade de France or Manchester Arena attacks are unlikely to repeat. Taleb’s approach promotes a healthy skepticism that recognizes rare events as part of a broader risk landscape, challenging venues to adopt a perspective that takes even low-probability risks seriously.
Reevaluating Risk Assessment Strategies
Traditional risk assessment models, which tend to rely on historical data, often fall short in predicting or preparing for Black Swan events. In The Black Swan, Taleb argues that focusing too heavily on the past can give a false sense of security, prompting leaders to overlook the potential for disruptive events. For venue managers, this means moving beyond linear risk assessments and integrating scenario planning, which prepares teams for a range of possible futures.
Since past events cannot fully account for the scale or nature of potential future Black Swans, many venues have adopted Taleb’s insights by preparing for extreme scenarios. For example, they develop response plans not only for severe weather and public health emergencies but also for unlikely yet impactful events, like terrorism. This expanded approach to risk management helps ensure that venue operations remain resilient in a rapidly changing world.
Scenario Planning as a Tool for Navigating Uncertainty
Rather than attempting to predict the next Black Swan event, Taleb’s approach emphasizes scenario planning. Venue managers can use scenario planning to prepare for a range of disruptions, enabling them to respond with agility and confidence if another large-scale event occurs. In cases of terrorism, for instance, scenario planning might include preparing evacuation routes, training staff for emergency crowd control, and designing communication protocols to inform the public swiftly. Taleb’s emphasis on preparedness over prediction empowers venue managers to act decisively when faced with unprecedented challenges.
The Black Swan: Moving Beyond Prediction to Preparedness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan presents a powerful case for moving beyond traditional risk assessments, encouraging venue managers to embrace a proactive approach rooted in resilience, adaptability, and antifragility. Taleb’s insights challenge assumptions about predictability, reminding managers that Black Swan events—while rare—are inevitable and can have a profound impact on business operations.
By viewing these events as opportunities to strengthen their operations, venue managers can create spaces that remain safe, adaptable, and memorable, even in the face of the unknown.